The Morgan Stanley survey pointed out that the global demand for bare wafers will increase in demand, which will drive the tight supply of wafers until 2022, especially 8-inch and 12-inch bare wafer fabs, which will reach a state of high demand in short supply by 2022. The fab may have to negotiate a five-year long-term supply contract with the bare fab, and the contract price may be 50 to 60% higher than the current spot price.

Morgan Stanley said that the supply and demand of the bare wafer market will undergo significant adjustments and will enter a period of significant price increases in the second half of the year. The vigorous reality is expected to continue until 2022. It is estimated that the average annual compound growth rate of the supply of 8-inch and 12-inch bare wafers from 2020 to 2023 will reach f3%, and the demand will accelerate by 7% and 10% respectively. The growth from the second half of this year to 2022 and 2023 is the most obvious.

This also reflects that the capacity utilization rate of 8-inch and 12-inch wafer fabs will reach full capacity next year. In particular, semiconductor capital expenditures are usually positively correlated with the market situation of bare wafers. Suppliers are expected to fully enjoy the bargaining advantage of the seller’s market. , The quotation is expected to continue to rise, and related fabs are expected to benefit.

Morgan Stanley further pointed out that the bare wafer market has experienced a decade of recession since 2008, which has made manufacturers' willingness to expand production become conservative. At present, due to the increase in the quotation of bare wafers, it will take at least 30 years for manufacturers to pay back their investment. The lack of return efficiency continues to inhibit expansion. Therefore, as the supply of bare wafers is in short supply, the fab may negotiate a five-year long-term and prepaid contract with the bare fab, and the price may be 50-60% higher than the spot.