Recently, the United States released a new "Supply Chain Security Report", which assessed the supply chain conditions in four key areas, including chips, batteries, medicine, and rare earth minerals, and listed many manufacturers as "dangerous risks" for US national security. Mainland China is regarded as a thorn in the flesh by the United States. In the 250-page report, Mainland China has been named more than 500 times. Unexpectedly, Taiwan has been named more than 80 times, and TSMC is the first to bear the brunt.

Paradoxically, just before the US report was released, TSMC's US plant had just started construction for a week.

"Top of the storm"

TSMC has no choice but to invest US$12 billion to build a leading 5nm manufacturing base under the US "warm and cold".

For this American factory, TSMC will send 300 employees and recruit more than 300 engineers, which can be said to be sincere. At the same time, in March this year, another TWD 21.1 billion (approximately US$740 million) was borrowed for plant construction and equipment for this project. But even so, the United States is still dissatisfied and uneasy, and it is still regarded as a "dangerous risk."

It is the so-called "to bear the crime". In an interview with Aijiwei, Isaiye Research believes that the reason why the United States lists TSMC as a dangerous risk manufacturer is due to Taiwan’s special political status, and more than 50% of the world’s foundries are manufactured by TSMC. Once there is politics Wrestling intervention, the supply of semiconductor wafers may generate corresponding risks.

And all of this can be found in history. Turning over the history of American hegemony, two words-"suppression" are written all over the paper.

Roughly speaking, the United States’ national fortune is divided into two stages: in the first stage, before becoming the overlord, the former overlord was specially pitted, and the British pitted against France; after the pitting, it was pitted again until the two colonial hegemons were subverted. . In the second stage, after becoming a hegemon, specifically suppressing countries that may threaten its hegemony, whether it is Germany, Japan or the Soviet Union, it can be said to do everything. Until now, the rising China has been regarded as a potential threat to hegemony. .

This is true for the country, and it is even more "relentless" for those "powerful" companies that are deemed dangerous.

Whether it is the French pride Alstom being "dismembered" by the success of the Americans, or the Toshiba incident that epitomized the "collapse" of the Japanese semiconductor industry, they have become "martyrs" under the banner of the United States maintaining global hegemony.

Obviously, TSMC is on the cusp of the storm this time.

A well-known domestic professor concluded that the conditions for the U.S. to suppress its opponents are: first, it fully surpasses the United States in technology; second, the technology of the suppressed company is outside the U.S. system; third, it poses a serious threat to the U.S. or the U.S. relies heavily on Suppressing enterprises; fourth, the suppressed companies are alienated from the United States; fifth, the suppressed companies cannot be controlled or are in danger of losing control; sixth, geopolitical considerations.

It can be said that currently only TSMC meets the above six points. It remains to be seen whether TSMC will be "precisely" hit by the United States in the next step.

For TSMC in the whirlpool, Isaiah research believes that TSMC has never ruled out the possibility of setting up factories in various countries, but the Sino-US trade and COVID-19 in the past two years have accelerated this trend, so we see There are voices in the United States, Japan, and Germany requesting TSMC to set up factories there. For TSMC, the economic benefits of setting up factories in the United States are not as good as producing in Taiwan, but with the subsidies of the local government, it has the opportunity to make up for the production costs. In addition, American companies are one of TSMC’s main sources of revenue, and the local area also has abundant technology. Talent, even if the establishment of the factory is largely due to political considerations, this move can also achieve the effect of diversifying production risks for TSMC. The same is true for setting up factories in Japan. Japan is the main source of silicon wafer materials. In addition, TSMC already has a local R&D center. In the future, there are also considerations for the construction of back-end packaging and testing plants. In addition, the wafer factory can provide the entire supply chain. The relationship is closer, and it can also serve important local customers such as Sony.

Global supply chain reshuffle

The United States today has become more jealous and arbitrary than ever. The report reveals the strong sense of anxiety in the United States, emphasizing that the United States will re-enforce semiconductor manufacturing on the premise of safety; the official has drawn a new global semiconductor map for the first time: the goal is to increase the proportion of the United States from the current 12% by 2027. Pull it up to 24%. Although Taiwan's production capacity will still rank first by then, its proportion will be reduced from the current 56% to 40%; the United States will replace South Korea and rank second.

The changes in surface numbers affect the reshuffle of the global supply chain.

A chip industry expert in Taiwan also said that such suspicion in the United States means that all semiconductor companies in Asia may need to rethink their future business strategies.

"The future global semiconductor supply chain should focus on accelerating local manufacturing layout and decentralizing the supply chain. From the perspective of the United States, the United States will consider the security of the supply chain higher than economic benefits in the future, through subsidies for IDM and fabs. Policies to strengthen US manufacturing capacity and increase the proportion of wafer manufacturing. From the perspective of mainland China, the mainland semiconductor industry will also increase equipment investment to achieve the effect of de-beautification as soon as possible and consolidate the local semiconductor industry.” Isaiah researched and analyzed.

More than that, Isaiye's research further pointed out that the trend of the semiconductor industry will also expand from the relationship between China and the United States to the global economy. For example, Intel's layout in Europe and GF's expansion in Singapore all have the meaning of further diversifying supply chain risks. .

Escaped"?

I can't help but ask, why just say that TSMC is in the "catastrophe" and why does this make Samsung the world's top OEM leader?

The above-mentioned experts analyzed that from Samsung's point of view, a Samsung's technical route is still within the US technology framework, and it has not achieved a certain technological direction beyond, nor has it subverted a certain technological model. Second, South Korea’s biggest problem is that it only has a defensive circle in the capital, and there are US troops stationed in other places, which means that South Korea has to rely on the protection of US troops stationed in South Korea. Third, in Samsung's own equity structure, foreign capital accounts for 55%, and 90% of preferred stocks are foreign capital.

Therefore, even though Samsung is a South Korean company, it is just the layout of international capital in South Korea. No matter how powerful it is, Samsung will not be able to fly out of the palm of the United States.

Perhaps this kind of "no hindrance" makes Samsung more heartbroken.

In the 1820s, the German economist Liszt used "kick off the ladder" in "The National Economic System of Political Economy" to describe the technological and economic suppression of the advanced countries on the emerging countries. The ladder is not only a shortcut for a rising star to progress, but it may also become an invisible trap. Once developed countries have established a successful model in the fields of technology and economy, latecomers who want to develop according to this model will often be kicked off the ladder at key points and fall.

This idea can vividly interpret today's chip battle. As the birthplace of chip technology, the United States dominates the formulation of the rules of the game, and other players can only look ahead. Therefore, no matter how overbearing and absurd it sounds, the various "sanctions" and "bans" of the United States in the field of chips have always succeeded.

The mainland semiconductor industry, which is destined to advance amidst the "fire", may have to think about how to persist in a protracted war.