The New Korean Financial Investment Company (Shinhan Investment Corp. issued a report, said SK HYNIX is expected to operate in the third quarter of this year, 4.1 trillion won, an increase of 52.2% from the previous month. Strong growth may be pushed by the ASP of DRAM and NAND, both of which increased by 8% from the quarter.

The report pointed out that the market is expected to be lowered in the third quarter. Due to the IT supply chain interrupt, the uncertainty in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 increased, exacerbated the worry of the memory market in the third quarter of 2021. The price of DRAM and NAND is expected to drop 4% and 2% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2021, and the first quarter of 2022 continues to decrease by 5% and 4%.

However, the downstream cycle in the background of the epidemic is completely different from the typical downstream cycle. Compared with the downstream cycle in the second half of 2018, there are three differences in the downstream cycle of 2021: 1) Inventory adjustment is the supply chain interrupt rather than decline in demand; 2) The global order is 60K / month, compared In the second half of 2018, the supply burden is limited; 3) Inventory levels are 8-10 weeks, compared to 12-16 weeks of the second half of 2018, more reasonable.

Based on this, the agency believes that there is reason to treat the current market adjustment as an accident caused by the epidemic. The uncertainty expected in the memory market may last until the first quarter of 2022, but it should be restored from the second quarter of 2022. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the nearest Vietnam and the Malaysian epidemic spread and slow down, and the spot price of DRAM is slow.

In 2022, SK HYNIX sales are expected to be 53.23 trillion won, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%, and the operating profit is expected to be 19.71 trillion won, an increase of 67.4% year-on-year.

The report further pointed out that SK HYNIX's share price reflects the worst case to a large extent. It is expected that the stock is currently at the extremely low end of the estimated interval, and will recover from over-amendment in the short term, and then increases with the increase of customer orders. With the mitigation of supply chain interruption, this momentum will restore in the fourth quarter of 2021 in the fourth quarter.