On December 24, the first Jiwei Automotive Semiconductor Ecological Summit was held in Shanghai. Richard Windsor, Research Director of Counterpoint, delivered a speech on "Future Automotive Electronics Market Trends and Ecology".

Richard Windsor said that in the next two decades, the automotive industry may face a situation where the chip content of each car will double. This point is emphasized because Counterpoint predicts that in the next two decades, the most extreme scenario will be a 65% decline in global automotive demand.

What can the auto industry do to offset this impact? Richard Windsor pointed out that given the low profitability of the automotive industry, the final result will be a large-scale company merger, and the 26 automotive companies worldwide may become three or four. The prices of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles are likely to gradually equalize. An important competitiveness of electric vehicles is that they can travel longer distances before they are abandoned. The prediction made by Tesla is in line with Counterpoint, that is, after driving about 500,000 miles, the battery performance drops to 20%. This means that consumers do not need to change cars so frequently. It is also true that the cost of buying and maintaining cars has dropped significantly. Electric vehicles are cheaper to maintain because there are fewer parts to replace, and they don’t consume gasoline, etc. From this perspective, Counterpoint believes that the economics of electric vehicles are very attractive to consumers.

With the development of the "four modernizations" of automobiles and autonomous driving, the overall demand for automobiles in the future will show a significant decline. By 2047, the number of automobiles will be reduced to 44 million. By then, autonomous vehicles will cover almost the entire market. Once the implementation of electrification and automation begins, and the vehicle is fully digitized, digital services for automobiles will become a huge business opportunity.

Counterpoint predicts that by 2024, spending on digital car services may reach as much as US$1.6 trillion. Richard Windsor believes that as long as OEMs and automakers can transform and provide consumers with these digital services, this amount will be enough for them to survive. Therefore, such conflicts exist in today's automobile industry. And if car companies want to provide these digital services to consumers, they need to overcome many difficult problems.

For chip manufacturers, in the next two decades, they need to ensure that the chip content of each car at least doubles.