Recently, DSCC predicted that the OLED panel revenue in 2022 will decrease by 4% year on year to USD 40.3 billion. The main reason is that the growth of IT applications has slowed down, while the smartphone as a mainstream application has declined rapidly.

Due to the persistent concern about the macro-economic downturn, while balancing the possible economic recession, consumer demand has weakened, continuous supply chain problems, business demand has softened and inventory has been overstocked. In 2022, the shipment and income of mainstream smart phones, smart watches and televisions have declined.

Among them, OLED smart phone panel shipments decreased by 13% year on year, and panel revenue decreased by 5% year on year. The shipment volume of OLED smart watch panel decreased by 12% year on year, and the panel revenue decreased by 3% year on year. OLED TV panel shipments decreased by 4% year on year, and panel revenue decreased by 10% year on year.

For the panel shipment of OLED smartphones, DSCC is expected to drop 13% to 554 million pieces year-on-year. This decline is mainly due to the sharp drop of 38% in rigid OLED panels, while the growth of flexible OLED panels is slowing down. However, the folding OLED smartphone panel is expected to grow 77% year on year.

DSCC estimates that the shipment share of rigid OLED smart phone panels in 2022 will be 32%, lower than 45% in 2021, and the revenue share will be 13%, lower than 20% in 2021. As the extreme competition of the price of flexible OLED panels erodes the market demand for rigid OLED panels, it is expected that this downward trend will continue in 2023. It is a great challenge for Samsung Display to see where the rigid capacity will go in 2023.

TrendForce also pointed out that the next few years will be a key period for the increase of OLED penetration rate. In the past, Apple has repeatedly played a key role in promoting the introduction of many new technologies and new products.

In addition, TrendForce believes that with the gradual expansion of OLED penetration in the mobile phone market, IT products will be the next key development battlefield of OLED. It is expected that after 2024, if Apple can successively launch iPad and MacBook series using OLED panels as planned, it will bring extremely positive benefits to the development of OLED panels in IT products.