It has been more than a year since the price of TV panel fell from a high level. Chromebook fell from the cloud for a year. The demand for other epidemics during the epidemic also declined significantly. After 10 years of growth, the number of Netflix users declined for the first time in the first quarter of 2022. Sony said that players were going outdoors, which affected the sales of its PlayStation game console.

On November 8, DIGITIMES Research issued a document to analyze and judge the trend of the 2023 global notebook computer market.

The article points out that no matter mobile phones, laptops or TV sectors, clearance will be the main short-term focus from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first half of 2023. As far as laptops are concerned, the front-end clearance is still slow.

Can the industry rebound in the second half of 2023? This industry is also uncertain. There are many black swans and grey rhinos on the market. In the long run, from the industry development in the past two years, some things can provide clues for future development. For the notebook supply chain, there are two expected trends.

1. Laptops continue to thrive, returning to the scale of 200 million units/year

At present, the notebook supply chain is expected to decline by 20-25% in 2022. DIGITIMES Research estimates that the shipment of laptops in 2022 will be 190 million, down 22.8% year on year. Looking forward to 2023, it is estimated that the supply chain may grow or decline in single digits.

In any case, the industry has reached a consensus that notebook shipments will return to the threshold of 200 million units. Compared with the situation that the shipment volume in previous years was stagnant at about 150 million units, the notebook supply chain is now relatively optimistic about the future of the industry. The main reason is that during the two-year epidemic period, the demand for laptops has gained momentum.

During the epidemic, laptops are an important tool for people who study/work at home. Devices that once threatened laptops, such as smartphones, have taken a back seat because of usage habits and cost performance. Smartphones are not suitable for tasks such as filling in Excel tables for a long time at all.

In addition to consolidating product demand, the age range of notebook users is also expanding. Due to the massive introduction of distance learning during the period of isolation, school-age children who previously could not use personal computers have already done so. When families or schools purchase laptops for distance learning, the opportunities and time for school-age children to use laptops have increased significantly, even though most schools have resumed physical classes. Once children have access to the notebook and enjoy the convenience, it is difficult for them to let go.

The result is that the age group of notebook users can expand downward. Once this demand is activated, it is difficult to recover, which forms a momentum. In addition, as the global population reaches 7.9 billion and continues to grow, unless alternative products are created, the demand for notebook computers will have a certain basis.

2. Intel's leading position will continue to be challenged and ARM architecture will rise.

Intel has lagged behind in product development in the past few years, providing competitors with the best opportunity to surpass it. Although AMD has not surpassed Intel, as the gap between the two continues to narrow, it is no longer Intel's insurmountable leading edge. Recently, Intel raised the price of its active processors, but AMD chose not to follow. This may increase AMD's market share in the PC sector.

According to the data of market research institute Statista, Intel's market share in the PC field (including desktops and laptops) reached a peak of 82.2% in the fourth quarter of 2016. At that time, AMD's market share was 17.8%. However, after that quarter, the two have been moving in the opposite direction. By the second quarter of 2022, Intel's market share will drop to 63.5%, while AMD's market share will reach 36.4%.

The notebook supply chain expects AMD to continue to show an upward trend in the second half of 2022. DIGITIMESResearch estimates that Intel's market share in notebook processors will drop to 63.9% in 2023, while AMD will rise from 22.5% to 23.9%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points.

Another growth force is Arm, whose market share will reach 13.9% in 2023. This growth in ARM based processors comes from two waves of hardware shipments: Chromebook and Apple's Mac.

The first is Chromebook. Before the outbreak, Chromebook was limited to the education market. However, due to government procurement, the epidemic and the subsequent large-scale introduction of distance learning, the sales of Chromebook tripled. Compared with 2020/2021, Chromebook will decline significantly in 2022.

Industry insiders estimate that Chromebook will not fully recover in 2023. In the best case, it may show single digit growth. The main reason is that with the easing of the epidemic, large-scale government procurement in the past two years is stopping. However, there are still some new demands, because Chromebook users are students and are more likely to damage the device.

It is worth noting that Chromebook is expanding from the education market to the enterprise and personal consumption market. The insiders pointed out that the sales of high-end Chromebook exceeded expectations, and the outside world speculated that it was selling in the enterprise market. In the long run, Google's recently released Chrome OS Flex system may also help.

Another driving force comes from Apple. For years, Apple has been developing its own processors for use in Macs. By 2022, all models will switch to the M-series, which in turn will promote the rapid leap of ARM architecture processors. According to DIGITIMES Research, its market share has risen from 0.5% in 2019 to 6.8% in 2021 and 11.8% in 2022.

Industry insiders pointed out that now, Wintel brand is comparing its products with Apple's Mac series to determine their advantages and disadvantages. The M-series not only broke the ceiling of single digit market share that previously restricted the ARM processor, but also increased Apple's market share in the notebook field. In 2022, Apple's market share will reach double digits, a peak in the past five years.

In the past, the Arm processor emphasized its low power consumption. With Intel focusing on performance, Arm is hard to break through. However, with Apple's M series posing a serious challenge to Intel's Core i processor, the idea that ARM architecture is inferior to Intel in performance is being overturned. This change is a major issue that Intel and AMD must address positively in the future.