Electronic component search engine According to the report, in 2018, the mainland semiconductor market was US$155 billion, and its output was US$23.8 billion. The IC self-sufficiency rate calculated was 15.3%, which was higher than 12.6% before 2013. Moreover, it is predicted that by 2023, this ratio will increase to 20.5%.
However, although the annual compound growth rate reached 15%, this is because the 2018 mainland semiconductor production is only 23.8 billion US dollars, the growth base is small, so there is the illusion of high growth. In addition, in 2018, the mainland is an important production base for large semiconductor companies including SK Hynix, Samsung, Intel, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd., which makes many of the productions actually come from the contributions of other manufacturers. Among them, SK Hynix has the largest capacity in the mainland's 12-inch fab, with a full capacity of 200,000 wafers per month.
Intel's 12-inch fab in Dalian (Fab 68 began production of MCUs in late October 2010) was idle in the third quarter of 2015 and was converted to 3D NAND flash manufacturing, which was completed at the end of the second quarter of 2016. As of December 2018, its full capacity can reach 70,000 pieces per month.
In early 2012, Samsung received approval from the Korean government to build a 12-inch fab in Xi'an for the production of NAND flash. Samsung started construction of the plant in September 2012 and started production in the second quarter of 2014. The company invested $2.3 billion in the first phase of the plant with a total budget of $7 billion. The plant is the main plant for Samsung's 3D NAND production in 2017. As of December 2018, the plant has a full capacity of 100,000 pieces per month. Samsung is currently expected to increase its overall investment by US$7 billion, making the plant's future capacity. It can be expanded to a scale of 200,000 pieces.
In addition, IC Insights also expects that mainland semiconductor production will increase significantly in the next five years, including pure wafer foundry SMIC, Huahong Group, and memory plant Changjiang Storage, Hefei Changxin, etc. will join the expansion. In addition, Fujian Jinhua, which is mainly based on the development of DRAM, is currently in a state of stagnation due to US sanctions. In the future, other companies plan to establish production bases in the mainland, such as Foxconn in Taiwan. The company will be in December 2018. Announced the proposed $9 billion fab in the mainland to provide foundry services and produce TV chipsets and image sensors.
IC Insights pointed out that if mainland semiconductor production rose to $47 billion in 2023, it still only accounts for 8.2% of the projected global semiconductor market of $571.4 billion in 2023. Even after the sales data of some mainland producers has been significantly improved (many mainland semiconductor manufacturers sell semiconductors to foundries of companies that resell these products to electronic system manufacturers), the mainland's semiconductor production by 2023 may still be only It accounts for about 10% of the global semiconductor market.
Even if Changjiang Storage, Hefei Changxin and other companies continue to build factories to expand production, IC Insights believes that overseas manufacturers are still the main force in mainland semiconductor manufacturing. Therefore, IC Insights predicts that in 2023, at least half of the semiconductor production in the mainland will come from overseas companies with fabs in the mainland, such as SK Hynix, Samsung, Intel, TSMC, UMC, Gexin and Hon Hai.
Given the size of the mainland's investment plans for the next five years, the mainland is likely to achieve a degree of success by reducing its reliance on semiconductor imports. However, the acquisition of foreign technology companies by Chinese companies is increasingly regulated by other countries. In addition, the mainland's own semiconductor companies may face more legal challenges in the future. The mainland's domestic semiconductor production is still facing severe problems test.