US West Data and Japan's Toshiba joint venture, the world's second largest NANDFlash factory Toshiba memory Mie prefecture, the four-day factory on June 15th, there was a power outage for about 13 minutes, including the new Fab2, Fab3, Fab4, Fab5 and Fab6 Affected by the impact, the overall plant operation has not yet been fully resumed, and it is expected to resume operation in mid-July.

Western Digital released a public statement on this incident on June 28, indicating that the capacity of 6ExaByte (EB) will be affected. The shortage will mainly be reflected in the third quarter of this year, and Toshiba has not indicated. Due to the resilience of the plant, it is far less reasonable than the industry's reasonable expectation of the recovery of advanced semiconductor plants. DRAMeXchange judges that Toshiba's downstream customers are not willing to trust the stability of the plant.

In response to the power outage, the state adjusted the price trend in the third quarter. Among them, in the wafer and communication retail market, the western data has a considerable market influence, and another major company, Micron, has announced that it will expand the production to 10%. In addition, this year's market price is almost approaching the cost price. Jibang expects that this will bring short-term upward pressure on wafer quotation, but it also needs to consider customer acceptance.

As for the 2D NAND products that have been transferred to niche, the drag is more obvious. As the Toshiba Yokkaichi factory is still an important source of supply, and the inventory level of such products is low, it is expected that the price will show an upward trend in the third quarter. The mainstream products such as eMMC/UFS and SSD, which are mainly based on 3DNAND architecture, have high inventory in both buyers and sellers. The third-quarter contract price will not fall, but the decline may slightly converge.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, Jibang believes that according to the current situation assessment, the contract price trend will tend to be flat or slightly down; the follow-up status will continue to be tracked.