Japan’s abacus is loud, and under export control, South Korea is like a broken arm. On Monday, local time, the data released by the South Korean Customs Office showed that exports in the first 20 days of July fell by 13.6% year-on-year. As a driving force for pulling exports, semiconductors have obviously lacked horsepower. In the first 20 days, South Korean semiconductor products exports dropped by 30.2%, and such products can almost reach 1/5 of Korea's total exports. The economic environment is eclipsed, and Japan suddenly has a hard time. Under the double attack, South Korea’s export winter seems to be close at hand.

South Korea, known as the global economic canary, has become more and more exposed. This data not only proves the effectiveness of Japan's pressure, but more importantly, it may mean that South Korea will achieve "8 consecutive declines" in exports. Data show that South Korea's exports in June was 44.18 billion US dollars, down 13.5% year-on-year, the largest decline in three years. This is already the seventh month in which Korean exports have continued to decline.

Nowadays, Japan and South Korea are in a state of friction. Japan has a grip on the Korean semiconductor industry. South Korean President Wen Zai has already made a warning for a protracted war. In this way, the year-on-year decline in exports in July was almost a nail. This friction has not only been limited to the government. South Korea’s imports in the first 20 days of this month fell by 10.3%, of which imports from Japan fell by 14.5%. Before this, a mighty boycott of Japanese goods was launched in South Korea.

According to South Korea’s “Central Daily News” report, the poll showed that more than half of the people in South Korea indicated that they have joined the ranks of boycotting Japanese goods. It is not new for Japanese beer to sell 1 million won in South Korea. Checking whether it is a Japanese-language inquiries website has also exploded due to page views. An obvious data is that the sales of Japanese brands Uniqlo and MUJI have decreased. 26.2% and 19.2%.

The wrestling with Japan is almost a top priority for South Korea. According to the Yonhap News Agency, on the afternoon of the 22nd local time, the South Korean Congressional Diplomatic Unification Committee held a plenary meeting and passed a resolution urging the Japanese government to revoke retaliatory export control measures. On the day of the election of the inauguration meeting in Qingwatai, Wen said that South Korea has been catching up with and surpassing Japan’s absolute advantage in many industrial fields such as home appliances, electronics, semiconductors and shipbuilding.

In the rhetoric, there is no help in concealing it. After all, Japan firmly occupies the link of semiconductor raw materials. The decision to cut off the supply directly disrupts the supply chain of large enterprises and large panel manufacturers. According to data from the Japan External Trade Organization, fluoropolyimide produced in Japan accounts for 94% of global production, and photoresist accounts for 92%.

According to the Korea Trade Association, Korean companies' dependence on high-purity hydrogen fluoride, photoresist and fluoropolyimide produced in Japan reached 43.9%, 91.9% and 93.7%, respectively. Earlier, SK hynix people also revealed that the inventory is less than three months, if the purchase can not be added, the factory may stop production after three months.

Shortly after Samsung’s “Prince” Li Zaiyu went to Japan to “fire”, on Sunday, SK Hynix CEO Li Xixi also went to Japan to solve the problem of supply of key semiconductor raw materials. Everyone knows that this trade friction will not be resolved in a short time.

For South Korea, the trouble is not only in Japan. The global trade headwinds, the decline in exports and Japan’s troubles have forced South Korea to remedy. On the 18th, the Bank of Korea suddenly announced a rate cut. A clear signal is that the Korean economy may be unable to hold back. Earlier, the South Korean government has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the full year of 2019 to 2.4%-2.5%, and in December last year, this forecast was 2.6%-2.7%.

Li Jiacheng, an expert on Northeast Asian issues and a senior consultant of the Chinese Concierge etiquette Culture Professional Committee, said to the Beijing Business Daily that under the control of Wen Zaiyi, the economic performance of South Korea was not satisfactory, and the economic strategy was not good, the business environment was poor, and the policy The lack of support and the turmoil in the external environment have brought a certain impact to South Korea. It can be said that the current situation of internal and external troubles in South Korea is the result of overlapping factors such as its own economic strategy, deterioration of the trade environment and economic downturn.