According to TrendForce's survey, the supply of major NAND Flash manufacturers in the world still increased by about 10% in the first quarter of this year. However, demand-side PCs, mobile phones, and data centers had stronger pull momentum in the second quarter, plus NAND. The problem of the tight supply of Flash controllers is still there. Therefore, TrendForce predicts that the price of NAND Flash in the second quarter will drop slightly by 5-10% from the first quarter, and then increase by 3-8%.
TrendForce said that in the second quarter, the NAND Flash supply side under the leadership of Samsung, YMTC, SK Hynix and Intel will continue to maintain a positive expansion trend. The quarterly growth of meta-output can reach nearly 10%; the demand side is benefited from the continuous order injection of PC OEMs and Chinese mobile phone brand manufacturers since the first quarter, and the support of data center customers to resume purchasing momentum from the second quarter . However, the current tight supply of NAND Flash controllers still exists, which in turn stimulates buyers to actively stock up. It is expected that the price of NAND Flash in the second quarter will drop slightly by 5-10% from the first quarter, and will turn into an increase of 3-8%.
In addition, the current Samsung factory in Austin, Texas, has not yet fully resumed work, which will cause greater concerns about the supply of controllers in the future, which will further restrict Samsung's supply capacity in client SSDs. Therefore, it is not ruled out that the contract price increase may exceed the current forecast.
TrendForce pointed out that in the case of clients SSD, the demand for housing economy driven by the epidemic continues to ferment. It is expected that the demand for laptops will remain strong in the second half of the year, and PC OEM brand factories will also increase the number of stocks in order to meet production needs. Thanks to the support of strong demand for orders, the supply side is also expected to maintain inventory at a healthy level. However, insufficient supply of NAND Flash controllers still exists, and due to the power outage and shutdown of Samsung's Texas plant, some orders cannot be delivered in the second quarter, making the supply of finished products even more tight. It is estimated that client SSDs in the second quarter The price will therefore rise by 3-8%.
In the case of enterprise SSDs, demand will begin to rebound from the bottom in the second quarter. The main reason is that after the inventory adjustment of data centers, the purchasing momentum in the second quarter will pick up. In addition, demand for information equipment from government, medical, and financial institutions will continue to emerge. In addition, There are also bidding proposals for Chinese telecommunications companies, and small and medium-sized enterprises around the world have begun to increase their orders for information equipment. The supply-side inventory level has also been improved due to continued benefit from strong demand for laptops and smartphones. The pressure of price cuts and sales has disappeared, and the contract price will stabilize as the overall market demand rises. The second quarter is expected. Enterprise SSD prices will increase by 0~5%.
TrendForce: Significant improvement in supply and demand; NAND Flash prices are estimated to rise by 3~8% in the second quarter
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